How much sea level rise are we anticipating?

    Sea level rise projections are evolving and we are drawing from the Province of BC’s projections.

    Climate change is expected to result in sea level rise of approximately 50cm by 2050, approximately 1m by the year 2100 and 2m by the year 2200 on the BC coast. 

    Sea level rise is unstoppable and irreversible for centuries.

    What causes sea level rise?

    Ocean levels are rising as warmer temperatures associated with climate change cause land ice to melt and thermal expansion of the oceans.  

    The amount of sea level rise that will occur at any location along the coast will depend on global sea level rise and local factors such as shoreline characteristics, wave height, wind and vertical land movement (subsidence and rebound). Very high water levels that could cause flooding will occur when high tides coincide with strong winter storms.

    What is at risk in the False Creek floodplain?

    • 38,000+ residents and a range of housing
    • $19 billion in assessed property value within floodplain
    • 200 industrial properties
    • Emergency and medical facilities
    • Schools and childcare facilities
    • Granville Island
    • Parks, recreation, and activity centres
    • Major utilities and infrastructure

    False Creek is a bustling, urban, mixed-use waterfront area that is one of Vancouver’s major destinations for residents and visitors alike.

    How will sea level rise and coastal storms affect Vancouver?

    With one metre of sea level rise and a major storm surge event (0.2% AEP storm surge event), approximately 13 sq. km of land and buildings valued at $28.6 B (2019 land value assessment) is vulnerable to flooding in Vancouver. This does not include the economic impact of business disruption or cost of cleaning up or rebuilding.

    The city is vulnerable today to flooding due to a major coastal storm. In the future sea level rise will increase risk of flooding.

    While flood risk today and in the short term is limited to a few areas of the city, flood risk increases as we add sea level rise to the equation. Coastal storm flooding that has occurred during King Tides in the last few years is an indication of where everyday water levels may be at high tide in the future.